Tulane20 @FINAL 31Kansas State , Week 3, Sep 19, 2026

Duke's Nate Sheppard ran for 227 yards and two touchdowns on 35 carries in the opener, exposing a Tulane front seven that lost five defensive linemen to Power 4 programs. South Alabama's PJ Martin added a 16-yard scoring run and the Jaguars moved the ball effectively on the ground early. Kansas State, 2-0 and 2-0 against the spread, brings a more dynamic rushing attack than either opponent. The Green Wave's defensive continuity and returning tacklers like Jack Tchienchou and Chris Rodgers have not translated into run stops, and this is the single biggest reason the game could get away from Tulane.

After managing just 54 rushing yards against Duke, Tulane exploded for 214 yards from Jaylin Lucas against South Alabama, including an 80-yard touchdown. However, the quarterback situation is still unsettled: Zeon Chriss-Gremillion was benched at halftime of the opener, and Kadin Semonza threw for 212 yards with a late game-winning touchdown but also benefited from Lucas's explosiveness. Kansas State's defense is far superior to South Alabama's and will challenge Semonza to beat them through the air. If the Wildcats load the box to stop Lucas, Tulane's passing game must prove it can consistently move the chains, something it has not done yet.

Tulane traveled 771 miles to Duke in Week 1 and lost by two touchdowns, committing 15 penalties for 104 yards in a hostile environment. Now they make a 737-mile trip to Manhattan, Kansas, to face a Kansas State team with a strong home-field advantage. The Green Wave are 0-2 against the spread and have yet to play a clean game away from New Orleans. The combination of travel, a raucous road crowd, and a Kansas State team that is 2-0 both straight up and against the spread makes this the most difficult situational spot of Tulane's young season.

The market has installed Kansas State as a massive favorite and gives Tulane only a token chance to win. While the Wildcats are clearly the superior team, Tulane's defense returns six of its top ten tacklers and has shown the ability to create turnovers, and Jaylin Lucas proved against South Alabama that he can score from anywhere on the field. The Green Wave also have a full week to prepare and correct the penalties that plagued them in Week 1. The market is heavily favoring Kansas State, but this Tulane team has enough playmakers to keep the final margin more respectable than the line suggests, even if a win is unlikely.

The Wildcats have allowed just three points in two games, with the lone touchdown coming on an interception return. They held Washington State to 101 rushing yards and Nicholls to 122 total yards. However, Tulane brings a more physical, experienced running attack than either previous opponent. If the rebuilt front seven, led by Wendell Gregory and Elijah Hill, can contain the Green Wave's rushing attack, the defense should continue its scoring drought. But this is the first real test of the preseason's biggest question mark, and a strong Tulane ground game could keep the score lower than the market expects.

Johnson threw two interceptions against Washington State, including a pick-six that accounted for the Cougars' only touchdown. While he has been efficient overall (three passing touchdowns in each of the first two games), his mistakes have kept opponents within striking distance. Tulane's defense, which has forced turnovers in its first two games, could capitalize on any errant throws. If Johnson protects the ball, Kansas State should cover comfortably, but his turnover tendency is a wildcard that could make the game closer than the market's heavy confidence suggests.

The Wildcats remain in Manhattan for the third straight week, with no travel and a full week of rest. They have outscored opponents 105-10 at home this season. Tulane, meanwhile, is 0-2 against the spread and has yet to face a Power Five opponent of this caliber. The combination of home crowd, familiar environment, and Tulane's travel (though not specified, likely from New Orleans) favors Kansas State. The market's high win probability reflects this, but the spread may still be attainable given the Wildcats' dominance at home.

The prediction market gives Kansas State a near-certain win, and the betting line is large. While the Wildcats have looked impressive, Tulane is a program with recent success and has played two competitive games. The Green Wave's 0-2 ATS record suggests they have underperformed relative to expectations, but they have faced decent competition. Kansas State's rebuilt offensive line and new coaching staff could lead to a slow start or conservative play, making a cover less certain. The market may be overvaluing the Wildcats' blowout wins over inferior opponents.

The Wildcats lost most of their offensive line starters from 2025 and turned to the portal for replacements. Against Nicholls and Washington State, Johnson was rarely pressured, but Tulane's defensive front is more talented and experienced than either. If the Green Wave can generate pressure, it could disrupt the running game and force Johnson into hurried throws, which has led to interceptions. This is a hidden risk that could keep the game closer than the market anticipates, especially if Tulane stacks the box to stop the run.