Arizona State24 @FINAL 17Kansas , Week 3, Sep 19, 2026

Cutter Boley threw six touchdowns against Morgan State and then put up 254 yards and two scores at Texas A&M, but he also threw two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns in the fourth quarter, turning a four-point game into a blowout. Reed Harris has been uncoverable (137 yards in Week 1, a career-high 189 in Week 2), and the run game with Kyson Brown and Marquis Gillis has been efficient. Kansas, at 1-1 with a much lower power rating than Texas A&M, does not have the athletes to match Harris and Omarion Miller on the outside or the front to shut down the run. If Boley protects the ball, this is the best offensive matchup ASU has seen since the opener.

The Sun Devils held Morgan State to 188 total yards, but Texas A&M's Marcel Reed carved them up when it mattered, and the Aggies scored twice on defense to pull away. The secondary, with LSU transfer Ashton Stamps and senior Lyrik Rawls, was flagged in the preseason as the unit's biggest question, and it has not been tested by a competent passing attack outside of College Station. Kansas is not Texas A&M, but the Jayhawks have enough at quarterback and receiver to stress ASU's back end if the front four cannot generate pressure. This is the most likely path for Kansas to keep the game close or pull the upset.

Arizona State travels more than five thousand miles one way to a neutral site with no home-field advantage, and the game is being played outdoors in conditions that could be less than ideal. The Sun Devils already logged nearly a thousand miles to College Station in Week 2, so this is their second long trip in three weeks. Kansas also travels, but the Jayhawks are making a shorter trip and are not coming off a physical, emotional loss to a top-ten team. The market has ASU as a modest favorite, but the travel and the neutral venue erase the situational edge the Sun Devils enjoyed in Week 1 and make this closer to a coin flip than the line suggests.

The line has ASU as a modest favorite and the prediction market gives them a clear majority win probability, but this is a team that has beaten only an FCS opponent and lost by four scores to the first real team it played. The market appears to be weighting the Morgan State blowout and the talent gap over Kansas more heavily than the Week 2 mistakes and the travel burden. Kansas is a power-conference team with a winning record and a defense that, while not elite, is better than anything ASU has seen outside of Texas A&M. The market's confidence in Arizona State is slightly stronger than this team's actual performance warrants.

The Sun Devils muffed a punt against Texas A&M that led directly to an Aggies touchdown, and Boley's two interceptions were returned for scores. Those are the kind of mistakes that decide close games, and this one projects as close. On the positive side, punter Nick McLarty was brought in to fix a net punting unit that was among the worst in the FBS last season, and kicker Carson Smith is reliable. Lyrik Rawls made a diving interception in Week 2, showing the secondary can create takeaways. If ASU wins the field-position and turnover battles, it covers the modest line comfortably; if it repeats the Week 2 giveaways, Kansas can steal this.

Kansas allowed 146 total yards to LIU, but that told us nothing about a unit that struggled against the run in 2025. Missouri then ran for 125 yards on the Jayhawks, including a 64-yard touchdown burst, and the Tigers consistently won the line of scrimmage. Arizona State's power run game is a similar test, and the transfer additions at defensive end and linebacker have not yet shown they can hold up against a quality backfield. This favors Arizona State.

Marshall threw two interceptions and lost a fumble in the second half against Missouri, and those back-to-back turnovers directly turned a tie game into a 14-point deficit. He also carried 20 times for just 23 yards, showing he could not escape a Power Four defense on the ground. Arizona State's defense is closer to Missouri's than to LIU's, and Marshall has yet to prove he can protect the ball against that level of competition. This favors Arizona State.

Nik McMillan had six catches for 130 yards and a touchdown against LIU, and Nahzae Cox added a 47-yard grab. Against Missouri, Cox caught a late touchdown to pull Kansas within a score. Andy Kotelnicki's scheme creates explosive opportunities, and Arizona State's secondary has not faced a receiver group this deep. If Marshall gets time, the Jayhawks have the playmakers to score quickly and offset Arizona State's advantages elsewhere. This favors Kansas.

Kansas travels 4,379 miles to a neutral site with no home-field advantage, while Arizona State travels even farther but has already played a road game and is more accustomed to cross-country travel. The Jayhawks are coming off an emotional rivalry loss and must adjust to a new time zone and unfamiliar environment. The market's line and win probability already lean toward Arizona State, but the situational burden on Kansas may be underrated. This favors Arizona State.

The line and prediction market favor Arizona State by a moderate margin, reflecting the Sun Devils' superior power rating and Kansas's quarterback uncertainty. But Kansas showed explosive potential against LIU with 613 total yards and moved the ball at times against Missouri. The Jayhawks have playmakers at receiver and running back, and Kotelnicki's scheme can create mismatches. The market may be underrating Kansas's ability to score, making this a closer game than the current numbers suggest. This favors Kansas.