DraftKings · as of October 8, 2026
Notre Dame (power rating: 26.5) carries a 12.2-point advantage over BYU (14.3) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. BYU's home field (Blue Chip HFA: 2.8) narrows that gap at LaVell Edwards Stadium. The market line is Notre Dame -12.5 and our model shows Notre Dame -7.6; Major model-market disagreement - verify the inputs. Beyond home field, the model charges Notre Dame's westward trip and the conditions, with a slighter reading for the altitude. The weather component is provisional until the game-time reading is confirmed. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.
The latest reading for LaVell Edwards Stadium shows Patchy rain nearby, 46°F, wind chill 40°F with winds of 15 mph. Wind of 15 mph is enough to matter to the total: the market has historically taken about 1.7 points off the number in this band. It is worth re-checking closer to kickoff. It was taken before the ~10-day forecast window opened, so it describes the furthest hour the forecast reached rather than kickoff itself, and it is replaced once the game comes inside the window. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Prediction markets on Kalshi price Notre Dame as 82% favorites to beat BYU (20%). That implies a market-derived spread of Notre Dame -9.3, a notable divergence from the bookmaker line of Notre Dame -12.5. The Blue Chip model makes it Notre Dame -7.6, a modest gap from the Kalshi consensus. Use the line value calculator below to compare prediction market probabilities against your own line.
Patchy rain nearby
46°F
| Measure | Notre DameAway | BYUHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 1,328 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | Home game | Home game |
| Season total | 3,058 miles | 2,591 miles |
| Body clock | 19:30 | 17:30 |
| Rest | 7 days | 7 days |
Notre Dame travels 1,328 miles to this game, a significant road trip. That is a westward shift of 2 time zones, the one travel pattern Blue Chip has measured as carrying a consistent price: about 0.9 points, with the distance burden already inside it.
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