DraftKings · as of October 9, 2026
Kansas State (power rating: 10.7) holds a 5.9-point advantage over Kansas (4.8) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Kansas State's home field adds 3.1 points to that advantage at Bill Snyder Family Stadium. The market line is Kansas State -9.5 and our model shows Kansas State -8.6; Model matches the market. Beyond home field, the model also charges the conditions. The weather component is provisional until the game-time reading is confirmed. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.
The latest reading for Bill Snyder Family Stadium shows Partly Cloudy, 55°F with winds of 25 mph. Wind of 25 mph is enough to matter to the total: the market has historically taken about 1.7 points off the number in this band. It is worth re-checking closer to kickoff. Gusts reaching 38 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. It was taken before the ~10-day forecast window opened, so it describes the furthest hour the forecast reached rather than kickoff itself, and it is replaced once the game comes inside the window. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Prediction markets on Kalshi price Kansas State as 75% favorites to beat Kansas (25%). That implies a market-derived spread of Kansas State -7.1, a modest gap from the bookmaker line of Kansas State -9.5. The Blue Chip model makes it Kansas State -8.6, a modest gap from the Kalshi consensus. Use the line value calculator below to compare prediction market probabilities against your own line.
Partly Cloudy
55°F
| Measure | KansasAway | Kansas StateHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 74 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | 1,780 miles | Home game |
| Season total | 10,613 miles | 1,296 miles |
| Body clock | 11:00 | 11:00 |
| Rest | 6 days | 7 days |
Kansas travels 74 miles to this game, a short road trip. The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.
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